Emulate the trial before you run it

Model the outcome. Not just the odds.

Emular's medical world model predicts how treatments shape patient trajectories — guiding which drug to advance and which trial to run.

drug → target
→ pathway
→ outcome
The problem

AI made candidates cheap. Picking the winner didn't get easier.

Selection decides the trial — and nothing predicts a drug's real effect before the trial runs. So most of the money finds nothing.

~$300B
Global pharma R&D spent every year to find new drugs
~90%
Of drugs entering the clinic never reach patients
~$270B
Burned every year on drugs that never reach patients
The platform

A world model that reasons over cause — not correlation.

Four capabilities, one causal engine trained on real-world evidence.

01 · Causal inference
Tell effect apart from indication

Correlation predicts risk — the sickest get the drug, so disease drives the outcome. Emular reasons drug → target → pathway → outcome to isolate the drug's true effect.

02 · Real-world evidence
Learned across patient records

Millions of longitudinal patient trajectories give the model the statistical power to see how treatments actually play out — far beyond any single trial.

03 · Trial emulation
Run the trial in silico first

Specify a protocol and Emular emulates its likely readout — endpoints, population, dose — so you can lock the design most likely to succeed before spending on the real one.

04 · Validated predictions
Benchmarked on 500k+ trial patients

Every prediction is validated against randomised-controlled-trial outcomes — the gold standard — so results carry evidence, not just confidence.

How it works

From a molecule to a predicted outcome.

The world model traces each causal link so a drug's effect is separated from the reason it was prescribed.

01
Drug
02
Target
03
Pathway
04
Outcome
Business model

Three ways teams put the model to work.

From a single protocol to a full portfolio — priced to the decision it de-risks.

Trial Design

Lock the protocol most likely to succeed — endpoints, population and dose, emulated before you commit.

Asset Diligence

Benchmark a candidate's pivotal trial before you sign — an independent read on the asset you're about to back.

Portfolio Platform

Score every asset on one model, continuously — the whole pipeline ranked and re-ranked as evidence arrives.

Contact

Interested in Emular?

We would be pleased to discuss our AI patient simulation platform, research collaborations, investment opportunities, or early access.

Email us
info@emularhealth.com

Please include your organisation and a brief description of what you would like to discuss. We normally reply within two business days.

Contact us